Qualitative research indicates that the political class fails to address the demands of the entrepreneurial voter
If you told a foreigner that Brazil saw GDP growth of 1.4% in the first quarter, unemployment at its lowest level since 2012, and yet the government faces a 57% disapproval rate, it would be hard to understand the logic behind the numbers.
The equation is not easy to decipher, but there are some elements that help explain it. Lula is experiencing communication fatigue, his approval ratings are deteriorating, and being the incumbent doesn’t help. It’s not a matter of bad intentions, nor of aligning with dictatorships or taking particular stances on foreign policy. The dispute is neither ideological nor strictly political.
The president has not been able to generate positive emotions, as is clear from the responses in the Plaza Pública qualitative research, even among those who voted for Lula in 2022 and now consider themselves undecided for 2026. What’s missing is the ability to sell a vision for the future.
On top of that, there’s a noticeable difficulty in engaging with two ongoing phenomena. Among respondents, there’s a perception that working under Brazil’s labor laws (CLT) for a low wage no longer pays off when you consider the cost of living. It has lost appeal. It makes more sense, they say, to go informal, take on multiple side jobs and gigs. “There are no quality jobs; it’s not worth working a 6-day week for minimum wage, exhausting yourself, only to find out the money doesn’t stretch far enough,” summarized one interviewee.
This perception feeds into a second, broader phenomenon that still finds little resonance in political discourse. A new group of self-employed entrepreneurs is emerging, pointing to a different logic, a new era – a scenario similar to what preceded Javier Milei’s election in Argentina. These are people constantly in “recalculating mode.” They’re young, from major urban centers, dissatisfied with formal job wages, looking for alternatives often fueled by digital fantasies: making a lot of money in a short time. They want to “own their time,” to bet on imagined rewards.
Reality, however, makes that path a bumpy one. Not everyone has a plan, a clear idea of the resources required, or the challenges ahead. The shift from survival entrepreneurship to the dreamed-of autonomy is complex. The key point raised by Plaza Pública is: today, there is no one in Brazilian politics who speaks to them, no one who puts their issues on the political agenda. These are people who live a daily rollercoaster, always on alert. And they have big dreams.
Politics doesn’t connect with them, neither in content nor tone. They want to hear a different story, a new narrative: plans, projects, future, money. The promise of “barbecue and beer” doesn’t resonate with this audience. This is a group with a low-middle-class income, but middle-class aesthetics and values: they want to buy a car, travel to Disney, have private health insurance.