Evidence presented at Bolsonaro’s trial convinced more moderate Bolsonaro supporters that the law must prevail, according to the director of Projeto Plaza Publica, which conducts periodic qualitative research.
Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction is beginning to define a new political and emotional landscape. Although a portion of the electorate is disappointed with the decision, a younger generation is tired of the constant conflict. A demand is emerging in the country, without a desire for revenge, for a new phase, a search for a new balance. Mostly opposed to amnesty, the group seeks to look ahead and heal wounds.
A question that many ask themselves orders this thinking: are the fights and differences on each side of the polarization due to fundamental issues or are they permeated by exaggerated traits, egos, and a lack of willingness to talk and debate arguments? “It seems like a beauty contest, a battle of egos, they dress up as characters, they don’t come up with proposals,” says a 27-year-old woman from São Paulo who voted for Bolsonaro in 2022. “Lula and Bolsonaro are the same, they dress up as characters,” adds a 34-year-old woman from Belo Horizonte who cast a blank ballot in 2022.
This dilemma is similar to the psychoanalytic concept of “narcissism of small differences,” the attachment to a “trait.” The “small differences” (which for some become enormous) function as a point of external polarization that strengthens identity. If everyone defends “absolute truths” written in stone, the conversation doesn’t work. Or it didn’t.
What are the “truths” that sustain the post-conviction climate of Bolsonaro:
- Some throw in the towel for a seemingly endless battle: “there’s no way, if you stay in the middle you lose, as already happened with Marina, Ciro, Amoedo.” They believe in a momentary lull, and that closer to the elections, everything will start again.
- Bolsonaro supporters are more closed-minded in maintaining polarization.
- Voters over 50 have bought into the fight fiercely. They are more upset..
This last point reinforces a different perception by age. “The September 7 demonstrations had many older people, they bought into the hype, they are more inflamed. My generation is seeking a balance without radicalization, you don’t see people wearing Bolsonaro shirts behind bars,” says a 29-year-old woman from São Paulo who voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 and Lula in 2022
This opens up space for a new interpretation, one that has been little seen until now: a new generation tired of constant fighting, wanting to turn the page and move forward with their plans. They seek a balance between maintaining their convictions without becoming radicalized. “My group is coming to terms with it, calmly, without rubbing salt in the wound. People have been through a lot of stress, we want peace. Lula won, so it’s time to go out on the streets and get on with life,” says a 25-year-old man from Rio de Janeiro who voted for Lula in 2022.
Two reasons are pointed out to explain this scenario of a certain emotional relaxation: the evidence presented at Bolsonaro’s trial convinced more moderate Bolsonaro voters that the law must prevail. Added to this, the effects and discussion of the tariff hike have generated a consensus in favor of Brazil’s sovereign stance against those who defend personal interests from abroad. It seems that both points served as a real platform for dialogue, for talking about something tangible.
If the country’s situation has a visual metaphor of a bomb or question mark as a portrait of the “political uncertainties Brazil is suffering,” the perception of the situation itself materializes differently. It has the traits of a long, winding, non-linear path. Or of a plant that needs to be watered. There is a relevant sign embedded in this view: there is greater emotional comfort in many of the interviewees. The feeling of justice being done produces a certain relaxation of tensions.
“After the conviction, there are no more heated discussions. I see a lot of people coming to their senses, realizing there is no turning back,” says a young man from Joinville, who voted for Amoedo in the first round of 2018 and for Lula in the second round in 2022.
What would be a possible path forward? For this portion of the undecided electorate, a “more humanized” right wing that abandons Bolsonaro’s anti-vaccine and pro-amnesty postulates. Could that happen?